{"id":1291,"date":"2019-05-26T00:11:33","date_gmt":"2019-05-25T16:11:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/valuetize.com\/global\/?p=1291"},"modified":"2019-09-19T16:55:15","modified_gmt":"2019-09-19T08:55:15","slug":"%e7%b4%a2%e7%bd%97%e6%96%af%e7%9a%84%e6%88%90%e9%95%bf%e5%8f%b2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.valuetize.com\/global\/?p=1291","title":{"rendered":"\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u6210\u957f\u53f2"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"article-body\">\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u5148\u6765\u770b\u4e09\u4e2a\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u5c0f\u6545\u4e8b\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>(1)<\/p>\n<p>1983\u5e74\uff0c\u7ebd\u7ea6\u957f\u5c9b\u7684\u5357\u5b89\u666e\u987f\u9547\uff0c\u6559\u5802\u5185\uff0c\u4e00\u573a\u5a5a\u793c\u6b63\u5728\u4e3e\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9762\u5411\u62ab\u7740\u5a5a\u7eb1\u7684\u65b0\u5a18\uff0c\u7267\u5e08\u5f00\u59cb\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5316\u5730\u5411\u7537\u65b9\u63d0\u95ee\uff0c\u201c\u4f60\u662f\u5426\u613f\u610f\u628a\u4f60\u7684\u6240\u6709\u548c\u59bb\u5b50\u5171\u540c\u5206\u4eab?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u6c89\u9ed8\uff0c\u6c89\u9ed8\uff0c\u4e00\u9635\u96be\u582a\u7684\u6c89\u9ed8\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u7267\u5e08\u6123\u4e86\uff0c\u65b0\u5a18\u4e5f\u8138\u8272\u5927\u53d8\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u73b0\u573a\u7684\u4eba\u5f00\u59cb\u5600\u5495\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f8b\u5e08\u51b2\u4e0a\u524d\u53bb\uff0c\u5bf9\u7740\u7537\u4eba\u4f4e\u8bed\uff1a\u201c\u6ca1\u4e8b\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u6ca1\u6709\u6cd5\u5f8b\u6548\u529b!\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u7537\u4eba\u660e\u767d\u8fc7\u6765\uff0c\u70b9\u70b9\u5934\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u5a5a\u793c\u5f97\u4ee5\u6b63\u5e38\u8fdb\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>(2)<\/p>\n<p>\u540c\u6837\u5728\u7ebd\u7ea6\u957f\u5c9b\u7684\u5357\u5b89\u666e\u987f\u9547\uff0c\u4e00\u540d\u7537\u5b50\u5230\u90bb\u5c45\u5bb6\u503e\u8bc9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4e0d\u5e78\uff0c\u90bb\u5c45\u8010\u5fc3\u503e\u542c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u539f\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u540d\u7537\u5b50\u7684\u513f\u5b50\u6295\u8d44\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u80cc\u4e0a\u4e86\u5de8\u989d\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u7537\u5b50\u4e8e\u662f\u628a\u6240\u6709\u7684\u79ef\u84c4\u90fd\u7559\u7ed9\u513f\u5b50\uff0c\u6ca1\u60f3\u5230\u513f\u5b50\u518d\u5ea6\u62ff\u53bb\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u53c8\u4e00\u6b21\u60e8\u8d25\uff0c\u503a\u4e0a\u52a0\u503a\uff0c\u5de8\u989d\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8ba9\u513f\u5b50\u65e0\u8def\u53ef\u8d70\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd9\u540d\u7537\u5b50\u81ea\u5df1\u4e5f\u5df2\u7ecf\u65e0\u8def\u53ef\u8d70\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u770b\u7740\u8fd9\u540d\u7537\u5b50\u9893\u5e9f\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u548c\u604d\u60da\u7684\u4e3e\u6b62\uff0c\u8fd9\u540d\u90bb\u5c45\u660e\u663e\u611f\u89c9\u5230\u4ed6\u7cbe\u795e\u51fa\u4e86\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u9009\u62e9\u4e0d\u5f52\u8def\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u53ea\u662f\u8010\u5fc3\u5b89\u6170\uff0c\u5374\u5e76\u4e0d\u63d0\u4ec0\u4e48\u5b9e\u8d28\u6027\u7684\u5e2e\u52a9\u2014\u2014\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4ed6\u672c\u4eba\u5341\u5206\u6709\u94b1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u540d\u7537\u5b50\u56de\u5230\u5bb6\u4e2d\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5929\u81ea\u6740\u8eab\u4ea1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u540e\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u540d\u90bb\u5c45\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u670b\u53cb\u804a\u5929\uff0c\u63d0\u5230\u4e86\u81ea\u6740\u7684\u7537\u5b50\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f4d\u670b\u53cb\u9a6c\u4e0a\u8df3\u4e86\u8d77\u6765\uff1a\u201c\u4f60\u8fd9\u4e48\u6709\u94b1\uff0c\u660e\u660e\u9884\u611f\u5230\u4e86\u4ed6\u8981\u81ea\u6740\uff0c\u600e\u4e48\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c1\u6b7b\u4e0d\u6551\u5462?\u4f60\u592a\u6b8b\u5fcd\u4e86!\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u540d\u90bb\u5c45\u5374\u6b63\u8272\u7b54\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u6551\u4e0e\u4e0d\u6551\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u505a\u9519\u4e86\u4e8b\uff0c\u662f\u5e94\u8be5\u81ea\u5df1\u53bb\u627f\u62c5\u8d23\u4efb\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4ed6\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u547d\uff0c\u4ed6\u613f\u610f\u81ea\u6740\uff0c\u7531\u4ed6\u81ea\u5df1\u638c\u63e1\uff0c\u522b\u4eba\u5e2e\u4e0d\u4e86\u4ed6!\u201d<\/p>\n<p>(3)<\/p>\n<p>1988\u5e74\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u897f\u65b9\u91d1\u878d\u5927\u9cc4\u6765\u5230\u5317\u4eac\uff0c\u4e2d\u592e\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u4e0e\u5176\u89c1\u9762\uff0c\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u8bf4\u81ea\u5df1\u5df2\u7ecf\u89c1\u8fc7\u597d\u51e0\u4e2a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u90fd\u5efa\u8bae\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6539\u9769\u4e2d\u5e94\u8be5\u5145\u5206\u53d1\u5c55\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u6700\u597d\u4e0d\u8981\u884c\u653f\u5e72\u6d89\uff0c\u4efb\u5176\u81ea\u7531\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u53ea\u201c\u65e0\u5f62\u7684\u624b\u201d\u81ea\u7136\u4f1a\u8c03\u8282\u5e02\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56fd\u52a1\u9662\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u95ee\u8fd9\u4f4d\u91d1\u878d\u5927\u9cc4\uff0c\u4f60\u8bf4\u8bf4\u4f60\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u770b\u6cd5?<\/p>\n<p>\u91d1\u878d\u5927\u9cc4\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6839\u672c\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e00\u53ea\u65e0\u5f62\u7684\u624b!\u662f\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u7684\u504f\u89c1\u5728\u5f15\u5bfc\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u51fa\u4e86\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u4e0d\u4ec5\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5fc5\u987b!\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u6545\u4e8b(1)\u91cc\uff0c\u90a3\u4e2a\u5728\u5a5a\u793c\u73b0\u573a\u4e0d\u80af\u4e0e\u59bb\u5b50\u5206\u4eab\u6240\u6709\u7684\u201c\u6e23\u7537\u201d\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6765\u81ea\u5308\u7259\u5229\u7684\u7f8e\u7c4d\u72b9\u592a\u4eba\uff0c\u672c\u59d3\u6377\u5c14\u5409(Gyoumlrgy)\uff0c\u540d\u5b57\u53eb\u505a\u65bd\u74e6\u8328(Schwartz)\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6545\u4e8b(2)\u91cc\uff0c\u90a3\u4e2a\u9884\u611f\u5230\u90bb\u5c45\u4f1a\u81ea\u6740\u5374\u53c8\u89c1\u6b7b\u4e0d\u6551\u7684\u6709\u94b1\u800c\u201c\u6b8b\u5fcd\u201d\u7684\u6e23\u7537\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u4e5f\u662f\u6377\u5c14\u5409-\u65bd\u74e6\u8328;<\/p>\n<p>\u6545\u4e8b(3)\u91cc\uff0c\u90a3\u4e2a\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u8bda\u5fc3\u8bda\u610f\u63d0\u51fa\u4ed6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5927\u9cc4\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u5e94\u8be5\u5df2\u7ecf\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\u4e86\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u540d\u5b57\u53eb\u4e54\u6cbb-\u7d22\u7f57\u65af(George Soros)\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5176\u5b9e\uff0c\u4e09\u4e2a\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u732a\u811a\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u2014\u2014\u4e54\u6cbb-\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u3000\u3000(\u4e00)\u6211\u751f\u6765\u4e00\u8d2b\u5982\u6d17\uff0c\u4f46\u51b3\u4e0d\u80fd\u6b7b\u65f6\u4e00\u65e0\u6240\u6709<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>1930\u5e74\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u5308\u7259\u5229\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u72b9\u592a\u5f8b\u5e08\u5bb6\u5ead\uff0c\u672c\u540d\u53eb\u6377\u5c14\u5409-\u65bd\u74e6\u8328\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7eb3\u7cb9\u7684\u6392\u72b9\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u7ae5\u5e74\u53ca\u5c11\u5e74\u65f6\u671f\u4e00\u76f4\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u6b7b\u4ea1\u9634\u5f71\u7684\u7b3c\u7f69\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ece\u4e8c\u6218\u524d\u5230\u4e8c\u6218\u4e2d\uff0c\u5308\u7259\u5229\u653f\u5e9c\u4e00\u76f4\u90fd\u662f\u5fb7\u56fd\u7eb3\u7cb9\u7684\u5fe0\u5b9e\u8ddf\u73ed\uff0c\u53cd\u72b9\u592a\u4e3b\u4e49\u5341\u5206\u4e25\u91cd\uff0c\u5148\u540e\u6709\u8fd150\u4e07\u5308\u7259\u5229\u72b9\u592a\u4eba\u88ab\u9001\u5230\u96c6\u4e2d\u8425\u5c60\u6740\u3002\u53ea\u662f\u9760\u7740\u7236\u4eb2\u7684\u7cbe\u660e\u548c\u575a\u5f3a\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u597d\u5fc3\u4eba\u7684\u5e2e\u52a9\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u4e00\u5bb6\u624d\u8eb2\u8fc7\u4e86\u7eb3\u7cb9\u5c60\u6740\uff0c\u5e78\u8fd0\u5730\u751f\u5b58\u5230\u4e86\u6b27\u6d32\u89e3\u653e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6210\u5e74\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u6211\u5f88\u5e78\u8fd0\uff0c\u6709\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4f4d\u7236\u4eb2\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6309\u6b63\u5e38\u6cd5\u5219\u884c\u4e8b\uff0c\u5f53\u5e74\u5fc5\u6b7b\u65e0\u7591\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u72b9\u592a\u4eba\u6ca1\u6709\u91c7\u53d6\u56de\u907f\u7684\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u5bb6\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u3002\u6211\u5728\u6218\u4e89\u91cc\u5b66\u5230\u7684\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4f60\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u53bb\u5192\u9669\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u5931\u53bb\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u751f\u547d\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u5341\u51e0\u5e74\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u9762\u4e34\u6b7b\u4ea1\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u4eba\u751f\u4fe1\u5ff5\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u6781\u5927\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4ed6\u4ece\u751f\u6b7b\u5371\u96be\u4e2d\u5b66\u4f1a\u4e86\u751f\u5b58\u6280\u5de7\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e24\u6761\u7ecf\u9a8c\u5bf9\u4ed6\u540e\u6765\u7684\u6295\u673a\u751f\u6daf\u5f88\u6709\u5e2e\u52a9\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u5bb3\u6015\u5192\u9669;<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u5192\u9669\u65f6\u4e0d\u8981\u62bc\u4e0a\u5168\u90e8\u5bb6\u5f53\u3002<\/p>\n<p>17\u5c81\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u968f\u5bb6\u4eba\u79fb\u6c11\u82f1\u56fd\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5386\u53f2\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u4e4b\u90fd\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u4e86\u91d1\u94b1\u7684\u529b\u91cf\uff1a\u201c\u94b1\u5e76\u975e\u4e07\u80fd\uff0c\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u94b1\u5374\u662f\u4e07\u4e07\u4e0d\u80fd\u7684!\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u4e3a\u5bb6\u5883\u8d2b\u7a77\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u4e00\u76f4\u9760\u6253\u96f6\u5de5\u6765\u7ef4\u6301\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u4ed6\u53d1\u4e0b\u91cd\u8a93\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u6211\u751f\u6765\u4e00\u8d2b\u5982\u6d17\uff0c\u4f46\u51b3\u4e0d\u80fd\u6b7b\u65f6\u4e00\u65e0\u6240\u6709!\u201d<\/p>\n<p>1949\u5e74\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u8003\u5165\u4f26\u6566\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9662\uff0c\u5e08\u4ece\u540e\u6765\u7684\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u83b7\u5f97\u8005John Mead\uff0c\u4f46\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u5374\u76f4\u8a00\u4e0d\u8bb3\u5730\u8bf4\u4ed6\u6ca1\u6709\u4ece\u90a3\u91cc\u5b66\u5230\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e1c\u897f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u559c\u6b22\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u81ea\u7531\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u5361\u5c14-\u6ce2\u666e(Karl Popper)\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e0e\u5361\u5c14-\u6ce2\u666e\u4ea4\u6d41\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u5361\u5c14\u9f13\u52b1\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u4e25\u8083\u5730\u601d\u8003\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u8fd0\u4f5c\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u4ece\u54f2\u5b66\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u89e3\u91ca\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1952\u5e74\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u62ff\u5230\u4e86\u4f26\u6566\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9662\u54f2\u5b66\u5b66\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u4f46\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u4ece\u4e8b\u4ec0\u4e48\u54f2\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8fdb\u5165\u91d1\u878d\u4e1a\uff0c\u4ece\u4e8b\u5546\u54c1\u548c\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u5957\u5229\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u5f88\u5feb\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5728\u8bb2\u7a76\u95e8\u7b2c\u7b49\u7ea7\u7684\u82f1\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\uff0c\u4ed6\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7eaf\u7eaf\u7684\u5c4c\u4e1d\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u53d1\u5c55\u524d\u9014\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u5f7c\u5cb8\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u4e1a\u7ea2\u7ea2\u706b\u706b\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u7d22\u7f57\u65af1956\u5e74\u79fb\u5c45\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u5230\u7ebd\u7ea6\u505a\u4e86\u4e00\u540d\u80a1\u7968\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u540e\u4e0d\u4e45\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u9047\u5230\u4e86\u5fb7\u88d4\u59d1\u5a18\u5b89\u5a1c\u8389\uff0c\u4e8c\u4eba\u4e8e1961\u5e74\u7ed3\u5a5a\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u72ed\u5c0f\u7684\u5957\u95f4\u91cc\u8fce\u6765\u4e863\u4e2a\u513f\u5b50\u7684\u51fa\u751f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1963\u5e74\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u61c2\u5f97\u6cd5\u8bed\u3001\u5fb7\u8bed\u7b49\u591a\u79cd\u6b27\u6d32\u8bed\u8a00\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u5f00\u59cb\u88ab\u7ecf\u8425\u5916\u56fd\u8bc1\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u7684Arnhold &amp; S. Bleichroeder\u516c\u53f8\u96c7\u4e3a\u5206\u6790\u5458\uff0c\u4ece\u4e8b\u56fd\u5916\u8bc1\u5238\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5e76\u6210\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e00\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5f00\u62d3\u8005\u30021969\u5e74\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u4e3a\u6240\u5728\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u6210\u7acb\u53cc\u9e70\u57fa\u91d1(Double Eagle Fund)\uff0c\u5e76\u62c5\u4efb\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u5728\u7ba1\u7406\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u6295\u8d44\u7406\u5ff5\u548c\u601d\u8def\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1973\u5e74\uff0c43\u5c81\u7684\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u51b3\u5b9a\u5f00\u59cb\u521b\u4e1a\u3002\u4ed6\u79bb\u5f00\u8001\u4e1c\u5bb6\uff0c\u4e0e\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u52a9\u624b\u5409\u59c6-\u7f57\u6770\u65af(Jim Rogers)\u5171\u540c\u521b\u5efa\u4e86\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u57fa\u91d1\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8\u2014\u2014\u521a\u5f00\u59cb\u516c\u53f8\u53ea\u67093\u4e2a\u4eba\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u662f\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\uff0c\u7f57\u6770\u65af\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u5458\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4eba\u662f\u79d8\u4e66\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u6700\u521d\u7684\u642d\u6863\u2014\u2014\u5409\u59c6-\u7f57\u6770\u65af<\/p>\n<p>\u7531\u4e8e\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u548c\u7f57\u6770\u65af\u8d85\u7fa4\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u624d\u80fd\u548c\u9ed8\u5951\u914d\u5408\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u51c0\u503c\u98de\u901f\u589e\u957f\u3002\u52301980\u5e7412\u670831\u65e5\uff0c7\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u57fa\u91d1\u589e\u957f3365%\uff0c\u6210\u4e86\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u540c\u884c\u4eec\u7fa1\u6155\u5ac9\u5992\u6068\u7684\u5bf9\u8c61\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u57281973\u5e74\u4f60\u628a1\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u6295\u5165\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u52301980\u5e74\u5c31\u53d8\u621033\u4e07\u4e86\u2014\u2014\u8981\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u6807\u666e\u5c14\u6307\u6570\u4ec5\u589e\u957f47%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1979\u5e74\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u51b3\u5b9a\u5c06\u516c\u53f8\u66f4\u540d\u4e3a\u91cf\u5b50\u57fa\u91d1(Quanta Fund)\uff0c\u6e90\u4e8e\u91cf\u5b50\u529b\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u6d4b\u4e0d\u51c6\u5b9a\u5f8b\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u8fd8\u6210\u7acb\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u2500\u2500\u5f00\u653e\u793e\u4f1a\u57fa\u91d1(Open Society Fund)\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u968f\u7740\u57fa\u91d1\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u4e8b\u4e1a\u84b8\u84b8\u65e5\u4e0a\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f1980\u5e74\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u57fa\u91d1\u589e\u957f102.6%\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u548c\u7f57\u6770\u65af\u5408\u4f5c\u6210\u7ee9\u6700\u597d\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u57fa\u91d1\u5df2\u589e\u52a0\u52303.81\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u4e2a\u4eba\u5df2\u7ecf\u8dfb\u8eab\u5230\u4ebf\u4e07\u5bcc\u7fc1\u884c\u5217\u3002\u4f46\u4ee4\u4eba\u9057\u61be\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7f57\u6770\u65af\u5728\u6b64\u65f6\u5374\u51b3\u5b9a\u79bb\u5f00\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u5408\u4f5c\u8fbe10\u5e74\u4e4b\u4e45\u7684\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u6700\u4f73\u642d\u6863\u5c31\u6b64\u5206\u624b\uff0c\u4ece\u6b64\u5206\u9053\u626c\u9573\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u540e\u7f57\u6770\u65af\u4e00\u8fb9\u73af\u7403\u65c5\u884c\u4e00\u8fb9\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u4e24\u6b21\u73af\u6e38\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u6bcf\u9694\u4e00\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u90fd\u80fd\u5728\u8d22\u7ecf\u5a92\u4f53\u4e0a\u770b\u5230\u4ed6\u5927\u8c08\u4e00\u901a\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ed6\u8fd8\u8ba9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5973\u513f\u5b66\u4e60\u6c49\u8bed\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u8d22\u5bcc\u4e0e\u53cb\u60c5\u4e0d\u80fd\u517c\u5f97\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8d22\u5bcc\u4e0e\u7231\u60c5\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u517c\u5f97\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1980\u5e74\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6b64\u65f6\u7684\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u5168\u5bb6\u5df2\u7ecf\u642c\u8fdb\u9ad8\u7ea7\u516c\u5bd3\uff0c\u4f46\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u5374\u662f\u4e2a\u5de5\u4f5c\u72c2\u4eba\uff0c\u58f0\u79f0\u540d\u4e0b\u57fa\u91d1\u662f\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u201c\u60c5\u4eba\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u559c\u6b22\u5728\u516c\u4f17\u9762\u524d\u629b\u5934\u9732\u9762\u2014\u2014\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u59bb\u5b50\u5b89\u5a1c\u8389\u5374\u559c\u6b22\u6e05\u9759\uff0c\u91cd\u89c6\u5bb6\u5ead\u9690\u79c1\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u5bf9\u5b69\u5b50\u5173\u5fc3\u4e0d\u8db3\u3001\u6001\u5ea6\u7c97\u66b4\uff0c\u59bb\u5b50\u5b89\u5a1c\u8389\u5728\u4e00\u6b21\u6b21\u5bb9\u5fcd\u4e4b\u540e\u8010\u5fc3\u8017\u5c3d\uff0c\u7ec8\u4e8e\u57281980\u5e74\u4e0e\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u6b63\u5f0f\u79bb\u5a5a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u79bb\u5a5a3\u5e74\u4e4b\u540e\u76841983\u5e74\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u4e0e\u5c0f\u4ed625\u5c81\u7684\u7f51\u7403\u7403\u53cb\u3001\u827a\u672f\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u82cf\u73ca\u7ed3\u5a5a\uff0c\u4e5f\u6b63\u662f\u5728\u4e0e\u82cf\u73ca\u5a5a\u793c\u7684\u8fdb\u884c\u4e2d\uff0c\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u5f00\u5934\u6240\u8bb2\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6545\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5a5a\u540e\u7684\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u4e00\u76f4\u641e\u4e0d\u5b9a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5988\u5988\u548c\u8001\u5a46\u82cf\u73ca\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u66fe\u611f\u53f9\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u5e38\u5e38\u611f\u5230\u56f0\u60d1\uff0c\u6211\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u6c9f\u901a\u534f\u8c03\uff0c\u4f46\u53c8\u770b\u5230\u5979\u4eec\u5f7c\u6b64\u4f24\u5bb3\u5bf9\u65b9\uff0c\u65e2\u75db\u5fc3\u53c8\u65e0\u5948\u2026\u2026\u6211\u53d7\u6211\u5988\u5988\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4ece\u6765\u5c31\u4e0d\u559c\u6b22\u8c6a\u534e\u5962\u4f88\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u73b0\u5728\u5fc5\u987b\u8fce\u5408\u82cf\u73ca\uff0c\u6211\u628a\u548c\u82cf\u73ca\u8fc7\u65b0\u751f\u6d3b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u6311\u6218\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u8bf4\u5230\u5e95\uff0c\u8d2b\u5bd2\u4e4b\u5bb6\u751f\u957f\u800c\u53c8\u7279\u522b\u770b\u91cd\u91d1\u94b1\u7684\u5bcc\u4e00\u4ee3\uff0c\u9047\u5230\u4e86\u559c\u6b22\u5962\u534e\u548c\u827a\u672f\u7684\u5bcc\u5bb6\u5973\uff0c\u5c0f\u6545\u4e8b(1)\u4e2d\u7684\u573a\u666f\u51fa\u73b0\u5e76\u975e\u6beb\u65e0\u7406\u7531\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5a5a\u540e\uff0c\u82cf\u73ca\u751f\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u513f\u5b50\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e5f\u6c72\u53d6\u4e0a\u4e00\u4efb\u5a5a\u59fb\u7684\u6559\u8bad\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u505a\u4e2a\u597d\u4e08\u592b\uff0c\u5e76\u8d5e\u52a9\u82cf\u73ca\u521b\u7acb\u88c5\u9970\u827a\u672f\u5b66\u6821\uff0c\u4e24\u4eba\u8fd8\u5171\u540c\u6210\u7acb\u4e8619\u4e2a\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\uff0c\u5954\u8d74\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u505a\u6148\u5584\u3002\u82cf\u73ca\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u8fd8\u80fd\u591f\u505a\u5230\u592b\u5531\u5987\u968f\uff0c\u4f46\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u516c\u4f17\u6d3b\u52a8\u5b9e\u5728\u592a\u591a\u4e86\uff0c\u8fd9\u8ba9\u82cf\u73ca\u5fcd\u65e0\u53ef\u5fcd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5230\u4e862004\u5e74\uff0c\u4e24\u4eba\u7684\u5a5a\u59fb\u7ec8\u4e8e\u8d70\u5230\u4e86\u5c3d\u5934\uff0c\u82cf\u73ca\u63d0\u51fa\u79bb\u5a5a\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u3000\u3000(\u4e8c)\u65e2\u7136\u903b\u8f91\u65e0\u61c8\u53ef\u51fb\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e0d\u5168\u529b\u4ee5\u8d74?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>1987\u5e74\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u80a1\u5e02\u906d\u9047\u9ed1\u8272\u661f\u671f\u4e00\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u662f\u505a\u591a\u7f8e\u80a1\u3001\u505a\u7a7a\u65e5\u80a1\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u635f\u5931\u60e8\u91cd\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u5230\u4e24\u5468\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\uff0c\u91cf\u5b50\u57fa\u91d1\u5c31\u5de8\u4e8f8.4\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u2014\u2014\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u51b3\u5b9a\u8ba4\u9519\uff0c\u8c03\u6574\u65b9\u5411\u64a4\u51fa\u6218\u6597\u3002\u7528\u4ed6\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8bdd\u6765\u8bf4\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u6211\u5bcc\u6709\u53ea\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u77e5\u9053\u6211\u4ec0\u4e48\u65f6\u5019\u9519\u4e86\u3002\u6211\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u90fd\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u800c\u2018\u5e78\u5b58\u2019\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u2026\u2026\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u4eba\u7c7b\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\uff1a\u9519\u4e86\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e22\u8138\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u6539\u6b63\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u624d\u4e22\u8138\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>1988\u5e74\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u8058\u8bf7\u5fb7\u9c81\u80af\u7c73\u52d2(Stanley Druckenmiller)\u5904\u7406\u65e5\u5e38\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u6253\u7406\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6148\u5584\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u66fe\u7ecf\u7684\u642d\u6863\u2014\u2014\u5fb7\u9c81\u80af\u7c73\u52d2<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u5fb7\u9c81\u80af\u7c73\u52d2\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u4e0b\uff0c1989\u5e74\uff0c\u91cf\u5b50\u57fa\u91d1\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e86 31.5%\uff0c\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u56db\u5e74\uff0c\u91cf\u5b50\u57fa\u91d1\u5206\u522b\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e86 29.6%\u300153.4%\u300168.8%\u4ee5\u53ca 63.2%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1992\u5e749\u6708\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u548c\u5fb7\u9c81\u80af\u7c73\u52d2\u4e0b\u91cd\u6ce8\u8d4c\u82f1\u9551\u8d2c\u503c\uff0c\u83b7\u522910\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u9274\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6545\u4e8b\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u8bb2\u8ff0\u8fc7\u65e0\u6570\u904d\uff0c\u6211\u8fd9\u91cc\u5c31\u4e0d\u518d\u5e9f\u8bdd\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5230\u4e8611\u6708\u4efd\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\u2014\u2014\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279-\u7ea6\u7ff0\u900a(Robert Johnson)\uff0c\u7528\u4e86\u51e0\u4e4e\u540c\u6837\u624b\u6cd5\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u573a\u51e0\u4e4e\u540c\u6837\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6218\u5f79\u4e2d\uff0c\u518d\u5ea6\u4e3a\u91cf\u5b50\u57fa\u91d1\u8d5a\u53d610\u4ebf\u7f8e\u91d1\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u505a\u7a7a\u5bf9\u8c61\u662f\u745e\u5178\u514b\u6717\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u8fd9\u4e24\u6b21\u7684\u5916\u6c47\u653b\u51fb\u4e2d\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u62bc\u6ce8\u6781\u9ad8\u2014\u2014\u4ed6\u603b\u5171\u501f\u5230150\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u6765\u62bc\u6ce8\u82f1\u9551\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u5f53\u5fb7\u9c81\u80af\u7c73\u52d2\u7ed9\u4ed6\u6c47\u62a5\u5934\u5bf8\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u56de\u7b54\u662f\u2014\u2014<\/p>\n<p>\u65e2\u7136\u903b\u8f91\u65e0\u61c8\u53ef\u51fb\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e0d\u5168\u529b\u4ee5\u8d74?<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u89c9\u5f97\u4ed6\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u54ea\u4e2a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u80fd\u591f\u6bd4\u4ed6\u4e0b\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u6ce8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u6b63\u7b26\u5408\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u53e5\u540d\u8a00\uff1a\u201c\u5982\u679c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d4c\u6ce8\u4e2d\u4f60\u8d62\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u8db3\u591f\u5927\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5c31\u5927\u4e3e\u62bc\u6ce8\uff0c\u62e5\u6709\u81ea\u4fe1\u6216\u8005\u6301\u4ed3\u8f83\u5c0f\u90fd\u662f\u65e0\u6d4e\u4e8e\u4e8b\u7684\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0e\u82f1\u683c\u5170\u592e\u884c\u7684\u82f1\u9551\u6218\u5f79\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u540d\u58f0\u5927\u566a\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u754c\u6295\u673a\u4e4b\u795e\u548c\u505a\u7a7a\u4e4b\u795e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6709\u4eba\u8bf4\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u5c31\u50cf20\u4e16\u7eaa60\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u7684\u9c8d\u52c3-\u8fea\u4f26\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u63a5\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u53d1\u884c\u4e13\u8f91\u2014\u2014\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u63a5\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u53d1\u884c\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u91cf\u5b50\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u753118\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u8dc3\u81f350\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e5f\u5f00\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u516c\u53f8\u3002\u52301993\u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u5176\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u603b\u8d44\u4ea7\u5df2\u98d9\u5347\u81f383\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1997\u5e74\uff0c\u91cf\u5b50\u57fa\u91d1\u5f00\u59cb\u72d9\u51fb\u6cf0\u94e2\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u5bf9\u4e1c\u4e9a\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u7fa4\u8d77\u653b\u51fb\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u4e9a\u6d32\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u66b4\uff0c\u4f46\u5fb7\u9c81\u80af\u7c73\u52d2\u5374\u5728\u968f\u540e\u6e2f\u5143\u88ad\u51fb\u884c\u52a8\u4e2d\u5931\u8d25\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1997\u5e74\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u8fdb\u519b\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u8fdb\u884c\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4fe1\u4efb\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u6539\u9769\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u6295\u5165\u91cd\u91d1\uff0c\u4f46\u906d\u9047\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u56fd\u503a\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3001\u8d27\u5e01\u7206\u8d2c\uff0c\u91cf\u5b50\u57fa\u91d1\u635f\u5931\u60e8\u91cd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1999\u5e74\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u7684\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u5f88\u5feb\u4ef7\u683c\u5c31\u88ab\u7092\u4e0a\u4e86\u5929\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u91cf\u5b50\u57fa\u91d1\u548c\u6731\u5229\u5b89-\u7f57\u4f2f\u900a(Julian Robertson)\u7684\u8001\u864e\u57fa\u91d1(Tiger Fund)\u90fd\u770b\u51fa\u6765\u4e86\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e0d\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u51e0\u4e4e\u540c\u65f6\u5f00\u59cb\u505a\u7a7a\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u2014\u2014\u6ca1\u60f3\u5230\u7684\u662f\uff0c1999\u5e74\u7684\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\uff0c\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u4ef7\u683c\u4f9d\u7136\u52b2\u5347\uff0c\u8ba9\u4e24\u5927\u57fa\u91d1\u4e8f\u5f97\u4e00\u584c\u7cca\u6d82\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u6559\u7236\u7ea7\u4eba\u7269\u2014\u2014\u8001\u864e\u57fa\u91d1\u8d1f\u8d23\u4eba\u6731\u5229\u5b89-\u7f57\u4f2f\u900a<\/p>\n<p>\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u8001\u864e\u57fa\u91d1\u4e0d\u4fe1\u90aa\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u505a\u7a7a\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u4e8f\u5f97\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u4e25\u91cd\uff0c1999\u5e74\u5f53\u5e74\u635f\u593119%\uff0c\u906d\u9047\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e0d\u65ad\u8d4e\u56de\uff0c\u57fa\u91d1\u89c4\u6a21\u4e5f\u4ece230\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u6025\u5267\u7f29\u6c34\u523060\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143;\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5fb7\u9c81\u80af\u7c73\u52d2\u638c\u8235\u7684\u91cf\u5b50\u57fa\u91d1\u53d1\u73b0\u52bf\u5934\u4e0d\u5bf9\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u8d76\u7d27\u6389\u5934\uff0c\u57281999\u5e74\u6700\u540e\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u91cc\u53cd\u624b\u505a\u591a\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8fc5\u901f\u5f25\u8865\u5f53\u5e74\u4e8f\u635f\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd8\u5927\u8d5a35%!<\/p>\n<p>2000\u5e741-2\u6708\uff0c\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u6307\u6570\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u8001\u864e\u57fa\u91d1\u524d\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u518d\u5ea6\u5de8\u4e8f13%\uff0c\u7ec8\u4e8e\u6491\u4e0d\u4f4f\u4e86\uff0c\u52302000\u5e742\u6708\u4efd\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u6e05\u76d8\u4e86\u7ed3;\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u55c5\u89c9\u7075\u654f\u7684\u5fb7\u9c81\u80af\u7c73\u52d2\u6b64\u65f6\u51b3\u5b9a\u5c06\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u51fa\u6e05\uff0c\u91cf\u5b50\u57fa\u91d1\u7531\u6b64\u5927\u8d5a\u800c\u7279\u8d5a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba4\u4e3a\u91cf\u5b50\u57fa\u91d1\u8be5\u5e86\u795d\u80dc\u5229\u4e86?!<\/p>\n<p>\u9519!<\/p>\n<p>\u8d4c\u5f92\u4eec\u603b\u662f\u76f8\u4fe1\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u597d\u8fd0\u6c14!\u5c312000\u5e74\u76842\u6708\u5e95\uff0c\u5fb7\u9c81\u80af\u7c73\u52d2\u770b\u5230\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u7ecf\u8fc7\u5927\u5e45\u9707\u8361\u4e4b\u540e\u518d\u5ea6\u8d70\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u8fd4\u56de\u5e02\u573a\u5927\u4e3e\u4e70\u591a\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u3002\u6ca1\u60f3\u5230\uff0c3\u670810\u65e5\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u6307\u6570\u89c1\u9876\uff0c\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u4ef7\u683c\u6389\u5934\u5411\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u591a\u6708\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u52302000\u5e744\u6708\u5e95\uff0c\u91cf\u5b50\u57fa\u91d1\u4e8f\u635f\u5df2\u7ecf\u5230\u4e86\u60ca\u4eba\u768421%\u2014\u2014\u5de8\u8d5450\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143!<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u9886\u57df\u7ee7LTCM\u4e8f\u94b1\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u518d\u6b21\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u4e8f\u94b1\u65b0\u7eaa\u5f55\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u91cf\u5b50\u57fa\u91d1\u5143\u6c14\u5927\u4f24\uff0c\u5fb7\u9c81\u80af\u7c73\u52d2\u88ab\u89e3\u96c7\uff0c\u5269\u4e0b\u7684\u94b1\u88ab\u5e76\u5165\u91cf\u5b50\u6350\u8d60\u57fa\u91d1(Quantum Endowment)\u2014\u2014\u6839\u636e\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff0c\u201c\u91cf\u5b50\u6350\u52a9\u57fa\u91d1\u201d\u5c06\u6539\u53d8\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u4ece\u4e8b\u4f4e\u98ce\u9669\u3001\u4f4e\u56de\u62a5\u7684\u5957\u5229\u4ea4\u6613\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u57281998\u5e74LTCM\u5012\u95ed\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c1999-2000\u5e74\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u6ce1\u6cab\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u8ba9\u56db\u5927\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u4e2d\u76842\u4e2a\u6298\u621f\u6c89\u6c99\u2014\u2014\u8001\u864e\u57fa\u91d1\u5224\u65ad\u5bf9\u4e86\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u575a\u6301\u4e86\u5f88\u4e45\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u4e0a\u65e9\u4e86\u90a3\u4e48\u4e00\u70b9\u70b9(\u8001\u864e\u57fa\u91d12\u6708\u4efd\u6e05\u76d8\uff0c3\u6708\u521d\u671f\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u80a1\u5e02\u89c1\u9876);\u91cf\u5b50\u57fa\u91d1\u662f\u5f00\u59cb\u5224\u65ad\u6b63\u786e\uff0c\u4f46\u51b3\u5b9a\u89c1\u98ce\u4f7f\u8235\u987a\u5e94\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u5f53\u5e02\u573a\u771f\u6b63\u6389\u5934\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u4e00\u8d25\u6d82\u5730\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u4f46\u5343\u4e07\u4e0d\u8981\u540c\u65f6\u9884\u6d4b\u4e24\u8005!<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd8\u8bb0\u5f971990\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u56db\u5927\u56fd\u9645\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u4e48?LTCM\u3001\u8001\u864e\u57fa\u91d1\u3001\u91cf\u5b50\u57fa\u91d1\u548c\u03a9\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u4e09\u4e2a\u8ffd\u6c42\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u5df2\u7ecf\u5168\u90e8\u73a9\u5b8c\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u8ffd\u6c42\u7a33\u5b9a\u5408\u7406\u5b89\u5168\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u03a9\u57fa\u91d1\u5f97\u4ee5\u5b58\u6d3b\uff0c\u4eba\u5bb6\u03a9\u57fa\u91d1\u5230\u4eca\u5929\u90fd\u8fd8\u5728\u5462!<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6295\u673a\u4e4b\u795e\uff0c\u4f60\u5f53\u771f\u76f8\u4fe1\u4ed6\u8ffd\u6c42\u201c\u4f4e\u98ce\u9669\u4f4e\u56de\u62a5\u7684\u5957\u5229\u7b56\u7565\u201d\u4f60\u5c31\u8f93\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2007\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u7acb\u5373\u4eb2\u81ea\u5750\u9547\u6350\u8d60\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u505a\u7a7a\u76f8\u5173\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u5f53\u5e74\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u9ad8\u8fbe32%;2008\u5e74\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u666e\u904d\u8dcc\u5f97\u627e\u4e0d\u5230\u5317\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u518d\u5ea6\u53d6\u5f978%\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u62a5;\u800c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c\u6574\u4f53\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u4e1a\u7ee9\u662f-19%!<\/p>\n<p>\u968f\u540e\uff0c\u57282009\u5e74\u548c2010\u5e74\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u8fde\u7eed\u53d6\u5f9720%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u4ec52010\u5e74\u4e00\u5e74\u5c31\u8d5a\u53d6\u4e8630\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2011\u5e747\u670827\u65e5\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u5ba3\u5e03\u7ed3\u675f\u56db\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\u751f\u6daf\uff0c\u603b\u989d\u4e3a255\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8\u4e5f\u5c06\u5411\u5916\u90e8\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8fd4\u8fd8\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u6b64\u540e\u4ed6\u5c06\u4e13\u5fc3\u6253\u7406\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5bb6\u65cf\u57fa\u91d1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u4e13\u5fc3\u6253\u7406\u5bb6\u65cf\u8d22\u5bcc\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u8001\u5f53\u76ca\u58ee\uff0c\u5c31\u57282011\u5e74-2012\u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u7528\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5bb6\u65cf\u8d44\u91d1\u505a\u7a7a\u65e5\u5143\uff0c\u7206\u8d5a\u5341\u51e0\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u30022013\u5e74\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u5bb6\u65cf\u57fa\u91d1\u66f4\u662f\u521b\u4e0b55\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u62a5\u8bb0\u5f55\u3002\u81ea\u57fa\u91d1\u6210\u7acb\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u53ca\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u521b\u9020\u4e86400\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u603b\u56de\u62a5\uff0c\u8dfb\u8eab\u5168\u7403\u8d5a\u94b1\u6700\u5f3a\u608d\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u884c\u5217\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8001\u5e74\u7684\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u6885\u5f00\u4e09\u5ea6\uff0c\u5728\u4f20\u51fa\u4f17\u591a\u7eef\u95fb\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7ec8\u4e8e\u57282013\u5e749\u6708\u4e0e\u65e5\u88d4\u5973\u5b50\u591a\u7f8e\u5b50-\u535a\u5c14\u987f\u7ed3\u5a5a\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u8fd9\u6b21\u5a5a\u793c\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u4e0d\u60dc\u4e00\u63b7\u4e07\u91d1\uff0c\u4e3e\u884c\u5386\u65f63\u5929\u7684\u989c\u8272\u4e3b\u9898\u5a5a\u5bb4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u591a\u7f8e\u5b50-\u535a\u5c14\u987f\u4e0e\u4e54\u6cbb-\u7d22\u7f57\u65af<\/p>\n<p>2015\u5e741\u670822\u65e5\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u5728\u8fbe\u6c83\u65af\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8bba\u575b\u665a\u5bb4\u4e0a\u5ba3\u5e03\u81ea\u5df1\u5c06\u7ec8\u6781\u9000\u4f11\uff0c\u628a\u5bb6\u65cf\u57fa\u91d1\u4ea4\u7531\u6295\u8d44\u603b\u76d1Scott Bessent\u8d1f\u8d23\uff0c\u4ee5\u540e\u4ed6\u4e0d\u518d\u7ba1\u7406\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5168\u529b\u63a8\u52a8\u6148\u5584\u4e8b\u4e1a(\u53ea\u8981\u4ed6\u4e0d\u53bb\u4e16\uff0c\u8c01\u6562\u76f8\u4fe1\u8fd9\u53e5\u8bdd\u5462)\u3002[page]<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u3000\u3000(\u4e09)\u505a\u7a7a\u8005\u7684\u9053\u5fb7<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u4f20\u7edf\u5a92\u4f53\u7ed9\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5370\u8c61\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u7684\u505a\u7a7a\u8005\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e9b\u5185\u5fc3\u6697\u9ed1\u3001\u9053\u5fb7\u8d25\u574f\u7684\u9634\u9669\u4eba\u7269\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u4ece\u4e8b\u4efb\u4f55\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5374\u65f6\u523b\u60f3\u7740\u7b49\u522b\u4eba\u906d\u9047\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u548c\u7834\u4ea7\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u7528\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u5177\u51b2\u4e0a\u6765\u4e00\u9635\u62f3\u6253\u811a\u8e22\u3001\u843d\u4e95\u4e0b\u77f3\uff0c\u8d5a\u53d6\u5927\u628a\u91d1\u94b1\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u7406\u89e3\u5341\u5206\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\uff0c\u5356\u7a7a\u7684\u4eba\u548c\u505a\u591a\u7684\u4eba\u4e00\u6837\u591a\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u9053\u5fb7\u533a\u522b\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u4e70\u5165\u67d0\u4e2a\u91d1\u878d\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u505a\u591a\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5356\u51fa\u67d0\u4e2a\u91d1\u878d\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u505a\u7a7a\u3002\u4e70\u5165\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u662f\u505a\u591a\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u5356\u51fa\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u505a\u7a7a\u80a1\u7968;\u4f60\u4e70\u5165\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u505a\u591a\uff0c\u5356\u51fa\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u505a\u7a7a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53ea\u8981\u53c2\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4efb\u4f55\u4eba\u5176\u5b9e\u90fd\u505a\u7a7a\u8fc7\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u6761\u4e0a\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u5e76\u4e0d\u6bd4\u4efb\u4f55\u53c2\u4e0e\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u4eba\u9053\u5fb7\u66f4\u4e3a\u9ad8\u5c1a\u6216\u8005\u9053\u5fb7\u66f4\u4e3a\u8d25\u574f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5728\u516c\u4f17\u751f\u6d3b\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u6211\u4eec\u4e2d\u7684\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u90fd\u8981\u66f4\u9ad8\u5c1a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6bd5\u7adf\uff0c\u4e14\u4e0d\u8bf4\u4e9a\u6d32\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u540e\u4e1c\u4e9a\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u6c11\u4f17\u5bf9\u4ed6\u7684\u53e3\u8bdb\u7b14\u4f10\uff0c\u5c31\u8bf4\u6587\u7ae0\u5f00\u5934\u7684\u90a3\u4e24\u4e2a\u5c0f\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u96be\u9053\u8fd8\u4e0d\u80fd\u8bc1\u660e\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u672c\u4eba\u5c31\u662f\u4e2a\u4e0d\u8bb2\u9053\u5fb7\u7684\u201c\u8001\u6e23\u7537\u201d\u4e48?<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u8fd8\u771f\u4e0d\u80fd!<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u59d1\u4e14\u4e0d\u8ba8\u8bba\u79c1\u5fb7\uff0c\u6765\u770b\u770b\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u5bf9\u6148\u5584\u4e8b\u4e1a\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u65e9\u5728\u4ece\u4f26\u6566\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9662\u6bd5\u4e1a\u4e4b\u65f6\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u5c31\u7acb\u5fd7\u8981\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u540d\u6148\u5584\u5bb6\u30021970\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u4ed6\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5728\u6148\u5584\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u524d\u6587\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u90a3\u4e2a\u201c\u5f00\u653e\u793e\u4f1a\u57fa\u91d1\u201d\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4ed6\u4e13\u95e8\u7528\u6765\u4ece\u4e8b\u6148\u5584\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u3002\u572890\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u6350\u8d60\u4e3b\u8981\u9762\u5411\u56fd\u5916\u90a3\u4e9b\u5927\u5bb6\u719f\u6089\u7684\u9971\u53d7\u72ec\u88c1\u4e4b\u82e6\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u672c\u6765\u5c31\u662f\u201c\u5f00\u653e\u793e\u4f1a\u57fa\u91d1\u201d\u7684\u542b\u4e49\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6bd4\u65b9\u8bf4\uff0c\u65e9\u671f\u5357\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u79cd\u65cf\u9694\u79bb\u5236\u5ea6\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u4eba\u9053\u548c\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u2014\u2014\u800c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u5f88\u65e9\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u8d44\u52a9\u5728\u79cd\u65cf\u9694\u79bb\u653f\u7b56\u4e0b\u7684\u5357\u975e\u9ed1\u4eba\u5b66\u751f\u8fdb\u5165\u5f00\u666e\u6566\u5927\u5b66\u5c31\u8bfb\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u4eca\u5929\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5308\u7259\u5229\u4eba\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u5728\u51b7\u6218\u65f6\u671f\u8fd8\u8d44\u52a9\u906d\u5230\u539f\u82cf\u8054\u53ca\u4e1c\u6b27\u653f\u5e9c\u538b\u5236\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u5206\u5b50\uff0c\u4f46\u4f60\u4e0d\u8981\u8bef\u4f1a\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u5e76\u975e\u4f60\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u90a3\u79cd\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u7f8e\u5e1d\u56fd\u4e3b\u4e49\u548c\u5e73\u6f14\u53d8\u7684\u9a6c\u524d\u5352\u201d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u662f\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u6574\u4f53\u53d8\u9769\u6709\u5173\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u660e\u663e\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u4ed6\u5bf9\u88ab\u8a89\u4e3a\u201c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u826f\u5fc3\u201d\u3001\u201c\u4f5c\u5bb6\u7684\u826f\u5fc3\u201d\u3001\u201c\u77e5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Promise)\u53bb\u6d88\u706d\u975e\u6d32\u7684\u6781\u5ea6\u8d2b\u56f0;\u5728\u6ce2\u9ed1\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u62e8\u51fa\u5927\u7b14\u8d44\u91d1\u7528\u4e8e\u6551\u52a9\u5e73\u6c11;<\/p>\n<p>\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u8fd8\u534f\u52a9\u6210\u7acb\u900f\u660e\u56fd\u9645\uff0c\u4ee5\u76d1\u6d4b\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5ec9\u6d01\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u900f\u660e\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u5e0c\u671b\u4ee5\u6b64\u7763\u4fc3\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u6267\u653f\u65b9\u9762\u66f4\u52a0\u900f\u660e\u5316\u548c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316;<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u5b5f\u52a0\u62c9\u56fd\u7684\u5c24\u52aa\u65af\u52aa\u529b\u4e3a\u7a77\u4eba\u5efa\u8d77\u4e61\u6751\u94f6\u884c\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u4e00\u5bb6\u4f19\u5c31\u6295\u5165\u4e864.2\u4ebf\u6b27\u5143\uff0c\u8d44\u52a9\u5c24\u52aa\u65af\u9762\u5411\u7a77\u4eba\u7684\u5c0f\u5fae\u4fe1\u8d37\u6d3b\u52a8;<\/p>\n<p>\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u300a\u65f6\u4ee3\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u57282007\u5e74\u66fe\u7edf\u8ba1\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u4ec5\u4ec5\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6148\u5584\u6295\u5165\uff0c\u603b\u989d7.42\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u5176\u5b83\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u622a\u81f3\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u6148\u5584\u6295\u5165\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fbe\u5230\u4e8660\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728\u6bd4\u5c14-\u76d6\u5179\u548c\u6c83\u4f26-\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u5f00\u59cb\u6350\u6b3e\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u6148\u5584\u6350\u6b3e\u91d1\u989d\u8fde\u7eed\u591a\u5e74\u90fd\u8749\u8054\u5168\u7403\u7b2c\u4e00!<\/p>\n<p>\u6216\u8bb8\uff0c\u4f60\u5f88\u96be\u7406\u89e3\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4eba\uff0c\u4e3a\u6148\u5584\u4e8b\u4e1a\u3001\u4e3a\u522b\u4eba\u5927\u91cf\u6350\u6b3e\u7684\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\uff0c\u5bf9\u8eab\u8fb9\u7684\u5bb6\u4eba\u548c\u670b\u53cb\u5374\u8981\u6c42\u82db\u523b\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u540c\u672c\u6587\u6545\u4e8b(1)\u548c(2)\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u4ed6\u751a\u81f3\u5728\u5a5a\u793c\u4e0a\u90fd\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u627f\u8bfa\u548c\u59bb\u5b50\u5206\u4eab\u8d22\u5bcc\uff0c\u5b81\u613f\u8ba9\u90bb\u5c45\u4e3a\u4e86\u627f\u62c5\u8d23\u4efb\u800c\u81ea\u6740\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u5c31\u57282013\u5e74\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u6253\u7b97\u4e0e\u591a\u7f8e\u5b50-\u535a\u5c14\u987f\u7ed3\u5a5a\u524d\u5915\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u5df4\u897f\u7c4d\u524d\u5973\u53cb\u8d39\u96f7\u62c9\uff0c\u5374\u63a7\u544a\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u8fdd\u53cd\u627f\u8bfa\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u5c06\u7ebd\u7ea6\u66fc\u54c8\u987f\u4e00\u95f4\u516c\u5bd3\u9001\u7ed9\u5979\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u9001\u4e88\u65b0\u604b\u4eba\u535a\u5c14\u987f;\u8d39\u96f7\u62c9\u66f4\u6307\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u66fe\u5411\u5979\u52a8\u7c97\uff0c\u4e3a\u6b64\u5411\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u7d22\u8d545000\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u800c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u5219\u7533\u8bf7\u505c\u6b62\u8bc9\u8bbc\uff0c\u5e76\u53ea\u6253\u7b97\u652f\u4ed825\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u5df4\u897f\u7c4d\u524d\u5973\u53cb\u8d39\u96f7\u62c9<\/p>\n<p>\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u4e3a\u5565\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u524d\u5973\u53cb\u8fd9\u4e48\u5c0f\u6c14?<\/p>\n<p>\u8f6c\u5ff5\u60f3\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u4eba\u751f\u54f2\u5b66\u2014\u2014\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u5e94\u8be5\u627f\u62c5\u4e0e\u81ea\u5df1\u80fd\u529b\u5339\u914d\u7684\u8d23\u4efb\u548c\u8d22\u5bcc\uff0c\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u6ca1\u6709\u7ba1\u7406\u8d22\u5bcc\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u4e4b\u65f6\uff0c\u4f60\u7ed9\u4ed6\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u662f\u5bb3\u4ed6\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4ed6\u6709\u4ebf\u4e07\u8d22\u5bcc\u4e14\u4e50\u5584\u597d\u65bd\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d2a\u8d22\u524d\u5973\u53cb\uff0c\u4ed6\u53ea\u6253\u7b97\u652f\u4ed825\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4ee5\u4e3a\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u5c31\u662f\u6323\u94b1\u592a\u591a\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u5237\u5b58\u5728\u611f\u624d\u53bb\u505a\u6148\u5584\uff0c\u90a3\u4f60\u771f\u7684\u9519\u4e86\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u8d5a\u94b1\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u8981\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u5b9e\u5728\u592a\u591a\u592a\u591a\u4e86\uff0c\u5728\u4ed6\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u6d3b\u7740\uff0c\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5b9e\u8df5\u4eba\u751f\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u54f2\u5b66\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u6148\u5584\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u8fd8\u662f\u5b66\u672f\u2014\u2014\u62e5\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u91d1\u94b1\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u8ba9\u5b9e\u8df5\u4eba\u751f\u60f3\u6cd5\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u4fbf\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u57282004\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u4e4b\u5e74\uff0c\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u8d44\u52a9\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u641e\u6389\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u5c0f\u5e03\u4ec0\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5c0f\u5e03\u4ec0\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u53cd\u6587\u660e\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u6297\u8bae\u7f8e\u56fd\u5165\u4fb5\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\uff0c\u4ed6\u5199\u4e86\u4e00\u672c\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